Florida Real Estate Newsletter - August 2026 📈

The Big Story

Florida's housing market continued to build momentum in July, with sales increasing across both major property types despite mortgage rates remaining elevated. Closed sales of single-family homes rose just over 5% year over year, marking the 11th consecutive month of annual sales growth. New pending sales also increased for the 12th consecutive month, suggesting that buyer demand remains resilient even as affordability continues to challenge the market.

The condo and townhome market posted an even stronger performance, with closed sales increasing 11% compared to July 2025. While affordability continues to support demand for lower-priced condos and townhomes, one of the more notable trends has been the strength of the higher end market. Sales between $500,000 and $1 million increased 24% year over year, while sales of condos and townhomes priced at $1 million and above surged more than 31%. Luxury single-family homes also performed exceptionally well, with sales above $1 million increasing more than 27%.

Inventory continues to move in a favorable direction for sellers. Active single-family inventory declined nearly 13% year over year, while condo and townhome inventory fell just under 13%. Although statewide inventory remains somewhat higher than pre-pandemic levels, it remains far below the levels experienced during the housing downturn of 15 to 20 years ago. The continued decline in available homes is helping provide additional support for property values.

Home prices reflected that improving balance between supply and demand. Florida's median single-family sale price increased 3.7% year over year to $425,000, while the median condo and townhome price remained unchanged at $295,000.

Overall, July's numbers provide additional reasons for cautious optimism. Sales continue to grow, inventory is tightening, and home values are generally holding steady or appreciating. Perhaps most encouraging is that buyers are returning to the market without a significant improvement in mortgage rates, suggesting that pent-up demand is gradually being released and Florida's housing market continues to adjust to today's affordability environment.

Local Lowdown

Quick Take — July 2026 Market Overview

The Tampa–St. Petersburg–Clearwater housing market continues to show two somewhat different stories as we move through the second half of 2026. Single-family homes have remained comparatively resilient, with prices above both last year and the beginning of the year, while inventory remains relatively balanced. Townhomes and condos continue to offer buyers more leverage, although July's inventory was actually lower than a year ago despite prices remaining under pressure.

In the single-family home market, the median sale price reached $415,000, up 2.5% year-over-year and approximately 7.4% from $386,500 in January. Inventory measured 4.0 months, below the 4.4 months recorded last July and close to January's 3.9 months. Homes went under contract in a median of 36 days, three days faster than a year ago and considerably quicker than the 50-day median in January. Sellers also received 96.4% of their original asking price, compared with 95.7% last July and 94.8% in January. Taken together, the numbers suggest that the single-family market has strengthened from where it began the year, even as buyers remain selective.

The townhome and condo market remains more challenging for sellers, but the year-to-date trend is more nuanced than the headline numbers suggest. The median sale price was $265,950, down 0.5% year-over-year and approximately 6.9% below January's $285,517. Inventory stood at 6.4 months, down from 6.8 months last July and also below the 6.8 months recorded in January. Median time to contract increased to 66 days, compared with 59 days last year and 53 days in January. Sellers received 93.5% of their original asking price, slightly better than last July but below the single-family segment. This continues to point to a market where condo and townhome buyers generally have greater negotiating leverage.

Single-Family Homes:

• Months Supply of Inventory: 4.0 months, down from 4.4 months in July 2025 and slightly above 3.9 months in January 2026.
• Median Sale Price: $415,000, up 2.5% year-over-year and up approximately 7.4% from $386,500 in January.
• Median Percentage of Original List Price Received: 96.4%, up from 95.7% last July and 94.8% in January, indicating sellers are capturing more of their original asking price.
• Median Time to Contract: 36 days, down from 39 days a year ago and substantially faster than 50 days in January.
• New Listings: 4,335, down 4.3% year-over-year and approximately 10.7% below January's 4,855 listings
• Cash Sales: 753, down 14% year-over-year, but approximately 23.8% higher than the 608 cash sales recorded in January.

Townhomes and Condos:

• Months Supply of Inventory: 6.4 months, down from 6.8 months last July and also below 6.8 months in January 2026.
• Median Sale Price: $265,950, down 0.5% year-over-year and approximately 6.9% from $285,517 in January.
• Median Percentage of Original List Price Received: 93.5%, up from 93.1% last July but down from 94.6% in January.
• Median Time to Contract: 66 days, up from 59 days a year ago and 13 days longer than January's 53 days.
• New Listings: 1,456, down 2.5% year-over-year and approximately 32.6% below January's 2,159 listings.
• Cash Sales: 497, up 3.1% year-over-year and approximately 23.3% higher than January's 403 cash sales.

Bottom Line:

July's data shows why looking beyond a single year-over-year comparison is important. Tampa Bay's single-family market has generally strengthened since the beginning of 2026, with the median price up more than 7%, homes contracting faster and sellers receiving a greater percentage of their asking price. Inventory remains around four months, suggesting a relatively balanced environment rather than a heavily buyer- or seller-favored market.

Townhomes and condos remain the softer segment. Prices are below both last July and January, while properties are taking longer to secure a contract. However, inventory has actually declined from both January and last year, and cash activity has increased considerably since the beginning of 2026. That suggests the segment isn't simply weakening across every measure—buyers remain active, but they are generally more selective and price-sensitive.

For sellers, pricing and presentation remain critical, particularly in the condo and townhome market. For buyers, current conditions continue to provide negotiating opportunities, while the single-family numbers suggest that waiting for broad-based price declines may not necessarily produce the advantage some buyers expect.

Local Lowdown Data